The State of the Race
It will come as a shock to almost nobody when I say, "It's over." By my count, Obama will win with at least 375 electoral votes by sweeping the Northeast, industrial Midwest, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. He will also make serious inroads in the GOP's Southern base by capturing Virginia, North Carolina and Florida and I wouldn't take Georgia completely off the table either. It appears that about a million Senate seats are going down, too. I haven't had time to look at the House races but Murphy's Law is sure to be broadly applied.
The Democrats will have, gulp, the White House and a working majority on Capitol Hill for the first time since, gulp, Jimmy Carter. I need to go lay down.
2 comments:
No, it's too early to proclaim McCain's demise. Obama is a radical leftist. Period. And the country is still center-right. If McCain will begin working on the divisive issues like abortion and marriage, it will help his numbers. If this is just about economics, he'll lose.
If the election were today, yes, it would be over. But it's 3 1/2 weeks away. Remember how down we felt in July, when it felt like the election was lost? Then came August and September. Now we're in a bad shape again, but there are lots more paid media ads to be run -- educating the public about how Obama really is. The earned media will mean less as we near election day.
I disagree. The crisis in the financial system has left an indelible mark in the public conciousness. A serious national security or foreign policy event could shift the conversation but, short of that, and I devoutly hope it will be short of that, McCain will not be able to recover momentum.
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