McCain Surge or Dead-Cat Bounce?

Today's Gallup tracking poll has Obama's lead down to two points among likely voters -- as those voters have traditionally been defined and screened. Gallup's second model, which attempts to adjust for heightened voter interest among young people and minorities, has Obama with a six point lead which is identical to his lead among registered voters. All the interviews with voters were completed prior to last night's debate.

Two notes of caution. First, we're entering into that final period of volatility just before people go to the polls where voters are giving both candidates that last look so polling numbers will shift around some. Second, despite the apparent closing at the national level, McCain is playing defense in so many Red states, I've lost track and is being buried in those states by his opponent's financial advantage. As much as I love Joe the plumber, I think it will take more than that to blunt the Democrats' drive to the goal line.

The final analysis: dead-cat bounce.