A Question of Race

In my soundings among Democrats, there is tremendous nervousness, a sense that victory is imminent but that the train might, at the last minute, jump the track. As one friend said, "It's happened to us before, you know." A good point, that.

At the base of this nervousness, I think, is the fear that America is so deeply racist that a giant "Bradley effect" is about to put McCain in the White House. As the Ombudsman has noted, the idea that the only reason one could possibly find to vote against Obama is his race is patently ridiculous. Even if one were inclined to vote against Obama because of race, there are scores of reasons to vote against him (abortion, for instance) and for McCain (abortion, for instance) before one ever gets to the race issue.

I think Obama will win in large part because of his race. Legions of white voters are so anxious to prove they aren't racist that they are willing to overlook the rather considerable gaps in Obama's experience and a highly questionable political philosophy. In addition, I suspect the turnout among African-Americans will be nothing short of astounding in support of the first black man to have a serious chance of holding the nation's highest office. Moreover, the man's race is probably the best conservative argument for electing him. As John O'Sullivan noted last spring, the election of a black man to the White House would have a stablizing effect on American society in that it would be a coda on the nation's troubled racial history. Race may be a factor in this election but, on balance, it will do far more to help Obama than to hurt him.