A Sign of the Times

There's some rumbling among DC Republicans about "the polls are wrong; the models are over-sampling Democrats; cellphone users don't vote; the moon is in Aquarius," etc., etc. Let's set aside that polls (with the exception of network exit polls of actual voters which aren't worth the computer screens they appear on) are notoriously accurate, not in exact outcomes but giving one the general sense of the race. Let's set aside that the polls this year seem to correspond rather exactly with the sense of momentum and interest in the race. (My office is next to Judiciary Square in Washington where one would, if one were a citizen of the District of Columbia, would go to vote early. The lines have been 1.5 to 2 hours long in a jurisdiction that is notable for its lack of impact on presidential elections, and I don't think these voters are standing in line for McCain.)

Setting all these things aside, the argument for the closeness of the race would be a lot more persuasive if it were reflected by the campaign schedules of the candidates. It seems to me that it is entirely consistent with the public polling that both candidates are campaigning almost exclusively in states that President Bush won in 2004: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, etc. Of recent note, Barak Obama campaigned this week in the Shenandoah Valley, Harrisonburg to be exact. Any guesses how long it has been since a Democratic presidential candidate visited Harrisonburg? Answer: 148 years ago when Stephen Douglas came through.

That Obama has moved that far down his Virginia target list (not Fairfax County, not Hampton Roads, not even Richmond) is an indication just how empty the talk about bad polling is.