Dr. Potomac's Memo

Dr. Potomac is feeling considerably chuffed by the state of the presidential race. Over the past two weeks certain clouds have begun to form around John Kerry's forehead (how could they not at such an altitude) which he believes are portents of disaster.

Cloud 1 -- Foreign Endorsements

Is there anything more delightful than this dust up over which foreign leaders support the Kerry campaign? Is it Jacques, or Gerhard or Vladimir or the new Socialist PM from Spain who supports your candidacy, Mr. Kerry? Tell us, we do so want to know, which of the leaders who opposed the liberation of Iraq or the cleaning out of the Taliban nest is so eager for your election.

There's no good way to answer these questions, so much of the "when did you stop beating your wife" variety. Moreover, in one fell swoop, Mr. Kerry managed to undue all the manly effort he put into establishing his foreign policy cojones during the primary season. This gaffe, which Dr. Potomac believes will haunt him up until election day, serves two important purposes. First, it reminds the average voter (outside the Bay State, that is) why Democrats can't be trusted with foreign policy: Dems just don't "get" the facts that America truly is the "indispensable nation", that our security is the foundation of global security, and that a nation occupying this position cannot allow itself to be held down by the Lilliputians of the European Community. A simple thought experiment along the lines of "What would the world be like if American economic and military power were suddenly and dramatically diminished, say, through a nuclear decapitation of the country's civilian leadership or the precipitous leveling of lower Manhattan?" clarifies the issue nicely. The answer is an ungodly mess, with China suddenly unleashed and massive economic disruption across the globe. We favor a strong national security policy not just because it is good for America but because it is good for the world. Second, Kerry's comment reveals his single biggest vulnerability as a candidate. He is a hot-house flower, nurtured in the rarefied climes of Boston Democratic politics. Seen in this context, the appeal to the views of foreign leaders is part and parcel of how Kerry has been utterly insulated from any opinion that originates south of the Pennsylvania state line. He can't compete nationally because his mental map of the nation looks like one of those "the view from Boston posters" in which the only visible landmarks are villages called Chicago and Los Angeles. Dr. Potomac predicts more such stumbles in the future.

Cloud 2 -- Political Infrastructure

Kerry and his staff are making brave noises about raising $80 million between now and the convention. This is improbable but let's give those angry Democrats the benefit of the doubt. Raising the money is only part of the problem; spending it effectively is the other, more important aspect of the equation. For the past four years, Team Bush has been investing carefully and methodically in preparations for the mother of all ground campaigns which will be especially important in a tight election. Over the weekend, President Bush launched his campaign in Florida with 400 or so precinct captains whose job it is to register new Republicans and organize get-out-the-vote activities. (In his previous life, Dr. Potomac had the opportunity to see just how effective a good GOTV program can be in bringing in that last 3 to 5 percent of the vote. Kerry has reason to be very, very afraid.) Kerry, in the meantime, was clearing his throat about how he didn't have a team in Florida but was planning to bring on staff -- soon, really, soon. In other words, in all the swing states, Kerry is catastrophically behind in organization and raising a lot of money isn't going to solve the problem BECAUSE THERE ISN'T TIME TO SPEND IT IN PRODUCTIVE AND USEFUL WAYS. Most will end up being wasted, a la Howard Dean's primary campaign.

Cloud 3 -- Ralph Nader

Did any of Dr. Potomac's loyal readers pick up on the NYT/CBS Poll showing President Bush with an 8 POINT lead in a three-way race with Kerry and Nader? This is stunning given the drubbing the President has taken in the past few months of all-Democrats-all-the-time media coverage. That sound you hear is the bottom about to fall out of Kerry's campaign. POTUS still might not get 51 percent of the popular vote but an 8-point victory over Kerry would translate into an electoral college blowout. And it is the NYT. Did I mention this was a NYT poll?

To top it all off, poor old Sad-Tree, who probably feels like he's been through a nuclear war with his primary opponents, in reality just finished the easiest part of the campaign. Everywhere his plane touches down from now on, he will be greeted by a blizzard of paid media advertisements attacking his position on national security and taxes and guns and gay marriage as well as rapid response media teams that will dissect every utterance for possible use in television ads at the next stop.

Yes, Dr. Potomac is feeling quite happy. Chuffed to the max.