Thursday, December 18, 2003

More from Dr. Potomac

Dr. Potomac, a Washington Insider, recently sent this email through the electronic transom of Dr. Curmudgeon & Co. on Sunday, just after the announcement of Saddam's capture. He'll be musing on the political consequences of that incident next week, no doubt:

"In re: the capture of Saddam Hussein, which guarantees months of favorable media coverage concerning the dictator's human rights abuses not to mention a treasure trove of information about the WMD program, his relationship to bin Laden and a variety of other subjects, three questions:

1) Could Al Gore's sense of timing be any worse?
2) What is the opening bell quote in the Howard Dean for Presidential Futures Market?
3) With Saddam in hand, the economy surging and prescription drugs off the table, what exactly is the Democratic presidential platform in 2004 irrespective of the standard bearer?

Those seeking an explanation for Al Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean need to consider the banal along with the baroque. The focus this week in DC has largely been on the baroque, how the endorsement is part of a crafty, long-term strategy to block Hillary Clinton from the 2004 nomination and position Gore either for a second run (in the event Dean loses) or to secure for himself appointment as Secretary of State should Dean unseat W.

These rationales fail to account for the most salient feature of Al Gore's post-2000 personality: his permanent state of rage. At the event with Dean in Harlem, Gore looked like nothing so much as one of the rage virus zombies from "28 Days Later", complete with the flopping hair, glistening skin and dilated pupils. Seen from this perspective, Gore endorsed Dean because Dean is the one candidate in the race who says he is as angry about the outcome of the 2000 election as Al Gore himself. There's a certain logical inversion in Gore's psychological perception, of course. Without the Florida recount, the 5-4 Supreme Court that ratified W's electoral college victory, and subsequent alienation of the lower reaches of the Democratic base, Dean would not be surging to the nomination right now. Dean didn't create the briar patch but he can hardly regret finding himself in it.

The deepening infantilism of the Democratic party is a short-term political boon for the Republicans, and one that virtually guarantees a big W victory in 2004 and significant gains in the Senate. (I leave the House aside since high-tech gerrymanders limit the number of seats either side is likely to win through elections. Off-year gerrymandering in Texas and Colorado holds out some hope for some Republican gains.) As many have noted, however, the foundering of the Democratic party is not in the long-term interests of the country or the Republican party. An effective two-party system requires, well, two parties -- not one party and a loose confederation of angry children. A heavy weight champ doesn't stay in shape sparing with a 98-pound weakling.

Exhibit A in this phenomenon is the alarming way Democrats have mishandled the failure of pre-war intelligence in Iraq. No matter how much Republicans would like to wish it away, the absence of significant chemical, biological weapons programs in Iraq is deeply troubling with potentially fatal consequences if left unaddressed. The problems for the U.S. are deepened immeasurably when the Democrats fail to identify correctly the core issue. The fact is that the intelligence failure was as broad and deep as it could possibly get. No one, including Hans Blix and Dominique de Villepin, was in disagreement over the fact that Iraq had and was developing further its WMD programs. It was the one absolute given of the pre-war debate. The argument was over how to disarm Saddam and how long to wait before taking military action. Rather than asking the mature political question, "How did the intelligence services misjudge this so badly and how can this kind of failure be avoided in the future?" Democrats, in infant mode, reduce a critical issue to an accusation that George W. Bush lied. Meanwhile, George Tenent stays on as CIA director and what should be an emergency overhaul of our intelligences services lags.

For heaven's sake, Democrats, grow up! You owe it to your country."

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