The Race Today

In a word: close. Much closer than it was two weeks ago but no breakout thus far by the McCain-Palin team.

The biggest development is the way that the Republican convention bounce has probably moved several states that Obama had hoped to compete in out of reach. Florida ($5 million in media spent so far) and North Carolina ($1.6 million) are probably gone for good. Obama has abandoned the fools-gold of Georgia but not before dropping $1.8 million in TV advertising alone along with the cost of 100 staff and 30 offices. (All of this adds up to the kind of waste you can regret the Wednesday after a close election.) Virginia, still close, has firmed up considerably (that happens with 23,000 people show up in Fairfax for a rally). I trust the Ombudsman is correct in thinking that Indiana was never really in reach for Obama to start with. Nevada feels as thought it is moving slowly back toward McCain.

On Obama's side, I don't think New Hampshire (Boston ex-pats) and Pennsylvania (Philly + Pittsburg + factory closings - second worst in the nation - equals Democrat) are truly competitive. Michigan's going to break McCain's heart before this is all over by soaking up a lot of resources and then going to Obama by 2points. Likewise, my instinct is that New Mexico ultimately falls to Obama based on its artsy weirdness (think San Francisco in the desert.)

It basically comes down to one large state (Ohio) and a medium-sized state (Colorado). McCain has to have Ohio, period. There's no path to victory without it. In the meantime the layoffs from factory closings there are absolutely bone-chilling and the state Republican party is a shadow of its 2004 self. I don't know what the plan is but it better be good. In Colorado, I wouldn't try booking any flights to Denver between now and November since it will be nothing but plane loads of operatives from both parties going in for trench warfare. Obama has pretty consistently maintained a 3 to 5 point lead there all spring and summer while his media expendtures have been relatively modest at just $800,000 (not counting, of course, the Democrats convention expenditures in the state.) Assuming the other calls, like New Mexico, Michigan and New Hampshire are right, Colorado is another must-win for McCain. The question is, how?

I've enjoyed the past two weeks as much as any good Republican can. It has been gratifying to see Obama and his team so up to honoring the long tradition of the "Fall Fold". But this race isn't over. Not even close.