Just What is a "Likely Voter"?

Gallup issued some interesting details on its polling methodology yesterday. "Registered voters," they say, are those who give a positive repsonse to the question of whether they are "registered to vote in their presinct or election district." This is the number that Gallup most frequently reports which split 50 percent for Mcain to 46 percent for Obama in the most recent report.

Gallup went on to say that it has spent decades refining its "likely voter" model. Respondents are asked a battery of questions about "past voting, current interest in the election, and self-reported interest in voting." The questions are extensive and detailed. Among these voters, McCain led 54 percent to 44 percent. That would be a landslide of Reagnesque proportions.

In the run-up to the 2004 election, Gallup's likely voter model was quite predictive. In the final poll before balloting, Gallup found Bush behind Kerry by 2 percent, 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush led by 2 percent, 49 percent to 47 percent. Bush won by 2.5 percent which would seem to indicate that Gallup's models have fairly strong predictive value.

Gallup notes that one thing it's poll might have difficulty picking up is rapid expansion of the voting public, and they further note the Obama campaign is promising to turn young people out in droves. Maybe. But as James Carville says, there's a name for candidates who rely on the youth vote: loser.

Bottom line: keep an eye on the Gallup Poll.