The Problems of Sarah Palin, Real and Apparent

I had a brief talk with The Ombudsman this morning about the choice of Governor Sarah Palin for the Republican nominee for Vice President. We had a robust exchange and agreed that some joint blogging on the topic might be "just the ticket."

From my perspective there are two sets of problems relating to Mrs. Palin, the real problems and the apparent problems. I'll take these in order of ascending importance and deal with the real problems first.

The real problems, chiefly her lack of policy depth and governing experience, are not terribly important in terms of the Vice Presidency. As a friend of mine recently said of the office, "How hard is it, really?" You have lunch with the boss once a week where you study his physical, mental and emotional well-being. You go to funerals, attend meetings, and help the party raise money. If you're lucky, like Al Gore, the president gives you a few substantive policy assignments. In Mrs. Palin's case, that's likely to be the energy portfolio. In this area, she would be formidable. As yesterday's interview with CNBC demonstrates, she's deeply knowledgeable and has a strong grasp on energy policy nuances. She was even able to call Obama and Biden "naieve" on the issue. With her reform credentials, she would also have an enjoyable time scrubbing appropriations bills for earmarks and making veto recommendations to McCain. The two are going to have a grand time together torturing Members of Congress over their pet projects. On the real side, the substantive side, her intelligence and philosophy make her eminently qualified for the vice presidency.

But first she has to get elected, and this is where the dragons be. I'll stipulate she has little to fear from the Obama/Biden team. They have already gotten their ears boxed by both Democratic nominees for being a tad bit aggressive in the way they came after Mrs. Palin's "experience" credentials after the Dayton announcement. American women don't like the rough stuff and they are a little tired of hearing that they aren't qualified to lead. Obama more or less apologized for his team's behavior yesterday afternoon. Apart from further developments on the attempted firing of Mrs. Palin's brother-in-law from the state police force, she's largely immunized from political attack by the Obama team.

Her real problem will be with the press corps. The Fourth Estate is in love with glib wonkishness and Mrs. Palin is likely to be a disappointment in this area. After all, the press will say, are you REALLY qualified for the presidency if you can't explain the difference between Trade Adjustment Assistance and Alternative Trade Adjustment Assistance? What's your view on whether people with disabilities should be included in the denominator when states calculate their TANF work participation rate? The truth is that anyone who knows the answers to these kinds of questions should be automatically disqualified from holding elective office. Reporters will hold an absence of knowledge about such minutiae as a sign of unfitness for office.

I'm hopeful that Mrs. Palin will be able to thread this needle between her real and apparent qualifications for office. She is sui generis and all the comparisons to Dan Quayle will soon be drop-kicked into oblivion. Unlike Quayle, Palin's life experience (born into a humble, middle class existance, well-acquainted with the troubles of life on the frontier, impatient with privilege and corruption) is going to be high-tensile armor against media attacks. And therein lies her main strength: she will exceed expectations by several orders of magnitude.

One final, unrelated thought: John McCain's political genius (and his manager Steve Schmidt's) is something to behold. Only those two could figure out a way to totally squash the coverage of Obama's speech in Denver. That was one first-class roll-out in Dayton.

I have hope.