Dr. Potomac's Memo

To my esteemed colleagues and readers, Dr. Potomac apologizes for his prolonged absence from the blogosphere. Professional duties and all that. A few thoughts to share on recent developments.

First, for all those losing their nerve in the wake of Senator John Kerry's triumphal procession through the Democrat primaries, Dr. Potomac commends to you an article from the February Atlantic Monthly in which Joshua Green outlines the contours of the 50/50 nation and its implications for 2004 election cycle. Green argues there are only 14 states in play in this election (from West to East: Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire) with the remaining states so solidly held by one or the other party as to be "off the table." Moreover, within these 14 states the electorate is evenly divided and highly polarized. Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin were all won by the Democrats with nearly invisible majorities in 2000. In all of these states, the balance of power is held by a tiny sliver of undecided, unaffiliated voters who are being targeted intensely by both Republicans and Democrats. For the first time in history, each party is armed with highly sophisticated marketing information and technology that has previously been the province of the commercial sector. A good deal will depend on which party has the better technological and human infrastructure to exploit this information. Give the advantage to the GOP which showed it had hustle in getting out the vote in 2002 and this year has the dollars to take that hustle to the next level.

Dr. Potomac draws a number of conclusions from this information. First, Kerry must draw the political equivalent of an inside straight to win this election. The most helpful way to think about the Democrat bind in putting together 270 electoral votes is to ask this question: "Which 2000 red states can Kerry convert to blue states in 2004?" The best targets on the list are New Hampshire where Kerry has high favorable ratings, and Nevada where President Bush reneged on his campaign promise and designated Yucca Mountain as the nation's nuclear waste repository. If my math is correct, winning those states and holding all the Gore states would still leave Senator Kerry a half-dozen or more electoral votes short of a majority. Looking at the remaining list of red state targets, Kerry probably has the best shot at winning Missouri. Dick Gephardt should probably keep his cell phone charged between now and the convention.

For the Democrats, there is no getting around the fact that the electoral college is a "target-rich" environment for President Bush. He will contest every single one of the blue swing states with particular attention to Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Oregon, and Washington. The undecides of the upper Mississippi basin and suburban Portland and Seattle should prepare for a deluge of narrowly tailored campaign communications in every possible technological medium.

Did anyone out there catch the coverage of the Daytona 500? The pictures and stories are reminiscent of the surprise Thanksgiving visit to Baghdad. The Washington Post had a remarkable photo in the sports section of Air Force One buzzing the stands and quotes from the President about his days "in the Guard" as a fighter pilot. Message: I'm just like you, NASCAR fans. The bigger, faster and louder the machines the more I like 'em. And he means it, of course, which is what makes it believable. I can only snicker when I think about Kerry trying the same thing.